From the archive: the WTH team wrote this up from a real event that was widely reported at the time, to show how the checks work. The sources are at the end of the description.

From the archive · #z7cg4vmeybxg

The New Jersey "drone" wave of December 2024

Paterson, New Jersey, US · Dec 12, 2024, 8:30 PM EST · written up by the WTH team from published reports

Probably aircraft

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Sky Snapshot 8:30 PM, give or take 15 minutes

NSEWJupiterMarsSaturnMoon
Sky
fully dark
Moon
waxing gibbous, 66° up
Planets up
Jupiter (48°), Mars (8°), Saturn (26°)
Bright stars
Sirius (southeast 3°), Vega (northwest 11°), Capella (northeast 55°), Rigel (southeast 24°)
Weather
clear, wind 14 km/h
Space weather
quiet (Kp 0)
Sunset
4:30 PM

Download the snapshot card to share it anywhere.

What people saw

When
Dec 12, 2024, 8:30 PM EST
Where
Paterson, New Jersey, US
Looking
north, low in the sky
Lasted
5 minutes
Looked like
few, red/green/white, point, hovering, blinking
Sound
none

Through late November and December 2024, thousands of people in New Jersey and nearby states reported lights in the night sky that they believed were large drones: blinking red, green and white lights, some seeming to hover, some moving slowly in groups. It became national news, and Stewart Airport in New York briefly closed its runways.

On December 16, the FBI, Homeland Security, the FAA and the Defense Department said the sightings they had looked at were a mix of lawful commercial, hobbyist and police drones, along with ordinary planes and helicopters, and stars that people mistook for drones. Once everyone was looking up, ordinary traffic on one of the busiest stretches of sky in the world looked suspicious.

Sources:
https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/east-coast-drones-latest-fbi-dod-statement-116855247
https://abc7.com/post/white-house-says-many-drones-spotted-new-jersey-east-coast-were-flown-faa-was-not-enemy/15844019/

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From above the area, the way they looked, and what was overhead

The map needs JavaScript. The checks below list everything it shows.

The circle is the area the report came from, rounded to about 10 km. We never show a witness's exact spot.

See it in 3D on the Sky Globe, at the moment it was seen

What it could be

  1. Aircraft Possible75%
    • +25Blinking lights are the aircraft tell (strobes and nav lights).
    • +15Red and green are navigation lights.
    • -5A plane flying straight at you can look like it is hovering for a minute or two.
    • +10The duration fits.
    • ·Flight tracks weren't checked: aircraft are only looked up live, for reports filed within a few minutes.
  2. Drone Possible70%
    • +20Hovering in place is the drone move.
    • +10Consumer drones carry small red, green and white LEDs.
    • +10Drones fly low.
    • +10Flight times of a few minutes fit.
  3. Helicopter Possible60%
    • +25Hovering with lights or sound is the helicopter pattern.
    • +10A bright white searchlight (police or news helicopter) fits.
    • +10Helicopters can hang around for a long time.
  4. Sky lantern Possible53%
    • +10Night sighting.
    • +20Orange flickering glow is a sky lantern.
    • +20Drifts slowly with the wind, often rising.
    • +5Silent.
    • +10Visible for a few minutes before burning out.
    • +10Often released in groups at weddings and festivals.
    • -15A lantern flickers, it doesn't blink regularly.
    • -15Lanterns glow warm orange, not white or blue.
  5. Military parachute flares Doesn't fit48%
    • +5Night, when flares are used and seen.
    • +15Parachute flares burn a bright orange-white.
    • +10From far away a slowly sinking flare seems to hover.
    • +5Usually several at once.
    • +15Each flare burns for several minutes.
    • +5Seen low over the horizon, often from far away.
    • +5Silent from a distance.
    • -15Flares flicker but don't blink.
    • ·Flares are dropped over military training ranges, so they are most often seen within a hundred miles or so of one.
  6. Bright star (twinkling) Doesn't fit46%
    • -10No first-magnitude star was in that part of the sky.
    • +15Low bright stars flash red, green and blue through turbulent air.
    • +8Twinkling is strongest near the horizon.
    • +15A fixed position fits a star.
    • +10Stays for a long time.

What we checked

  • ·Satellites: not checked (orbit data missing)
  • ·Starlink trains: not checked
  • ✓Launches: none within 90 minutes and 3,000 km
  • ·Aircraft: not checked (no flight history feed yet)
  • ✓Planets and Moon: Jupiter, Mars, Saturn, and the Moon was up
  • ✓Space weather: quiet (Kp 0)
  • ✓Weather: clear
  • ✓Meteor showers: Geminids (peak)
How we worked this out

We took a snapshot of the sky from 15 minutes before to 15 minutes after Dec 13, 2024, 1:30 AM UTC at 40.80, -74.48, and scored 23 possible explanations. Each one starts from how common it is, then gains or loses points for every detail the witness gave and every record we found. The points are listed next to each reason above. "Likely" means 80% or more and "Possible" means 50 to 79%. Anything lower doesn't fit, and if nothing reaches 50%, the case stays unexplained.

Sources: launch schedule from Launch Library 2; planetary Kp from GFZ Potsdam; weather from Open-Meteo; Sun, Moon and planet positions worked out on our server with astronomy-engine. Engine 0.4.0, snapshot v2, worked out Oct 29, 2026, 4:53 PM UTC.

Not available for this report: satellite passes.

Discussion 0 replies

Sky Investigator AI first look

This report describes a few low, red, green and white lights that hovered for about five minutes over Paterson, New Jersey, at 8:30 PM EST on December 12, 2024. The witness saw them with their eyes, heard no sound, and noted that the lights were blinking. The sky was clear and dark, with a waxing gibbous moon up, and no satellite passes or launches were logged nearby. The best fit is an aircraft, with blinking strobes and red and green navigation lights, and a plane flying straight toward the observer can look like it is hovering. A small lit drone is a close second, since hovering and low flight are typical of drones and their LEDs can look similar. Because the aircraft check could not be run, neither explanation is confirmed. The case is possible rather than settled.

This reply only uses the sky checks above, so it can't claim more than the data shows. Was it helpful?

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